1. Looking into late 2025/early 2026 (the next 6 months or so), what trends, challenges, or opportunities do you see in the local real estate market?
After four years of historically low inventory that created one of the strongest seller’s markets in history, the era of year-over-year record price increases is likely behind us. Excluding condos, the 2025 median sale price of single-family homes is now $688,250 in Leelanau County and $432,766 in Grand Traverse County.
Affordability remains the biggest challenge in our regional housing market, particularly for younger buyers without equity from prior homeownership. Beyond sale prices, property taxes and mortgage rates continue to weigh heavily on purchasing power.
2. What do you expect in terms of demand?
Demand has softened slightly as rising purchase costs have created a greater barrier to entry, while inventory has inched up at the same time. Overall, we now have about 5–6 months of housing supply—the textbook definition of a balanced market. It’s neither a buyer’s market nor a seller’s market, but the sweet spot in between.
That said, the waterfront submarket is the exception. With virtually no new inventory and plenty of buyers waiting, it remains a strong seller’s market, and prices have continued to climb sharply in that segment.
3. Will prices ever fall? What about interest rates?
Prices are unlikely to fall drastically unless we see a wave of forced sales like the ones following the 2008 financial crisis. The difference is that since 2008, we haven’t built enough housing nationwide to create widespread distress selling—especially in our region.
Here’s a telling stat: year-to-date, 38% of sales in Grand Traverse County and 47% in Leelanau County have been 100% cash purchases. Add in the many buyers putting 20% or more down, and most homeowners are positioned to “wait it out” rather than sell at a loss.
As for interest rates, the reality is setting in: 6%–7% rates are here to stay—and buyers are adjusting. In our market, where cash plays such a big role, mortgage rates don’t have the same impact on affordability that they do elsewhere in the country.
4. What percent of homes are vacation homes, Airbnbs, or investment properties vs. primary residences? Has that changed recently?
In Leelanau County, vacation homes have always been a significant part of the market. About 50% of my clients are buying second homes today.
Many assume that Airbnb and VRBO have shifted the balance, but the reality is our region has always had a high proportion of seasonal homes and rentals. Back in 2010, only 45.3% of homes in Leelanau County were primary residences. By 2024, that figure was 46%—essentially unchanged in 14 years.
5. How can first-time homebuyers (and those without $1M in cash) get a foot in the door?
Buying in 2025 is challenging—but not impossible. Success comes down to patience, preparation, and persistence.
A recent example: I worked with a first-time buyer couple closing this week on a home in Long Lake Township for under $300,000. They even secured a $10,000 interest-free down payment loan from MSHDA.
Their journey wasn’t smooth—they missed out the first time the home came to market. But when the initial buyer backed out, they were ready. Their offer stood out because it was clean and organized: they were pre-approved, had proof of funds in hand, and showed the seller they were serious.
That’s what it takes today. The opportunities are out there, but buyers need to be positioned to act quickly when the right one appears.
👉 Thinking about buying or selling in Northern Michigan? Let’s talk strategy. Every market has challenges, but there are always opportunities for those prepared to seize them.
